As award season comes around again, I return to critique, examine, predict and criticize or praise the various Hollywood competitions. When this article is published, the Grammy’s will have already been held on Feb. 2. I will be waiting for results with bated breath to see how accurate I was.
But let’s jump right in with the biggest award of the Recording Academy’s night: Record of the Year!
If the Grammys voted based on the qualifications of the Record of the Year category, then the top contenders would be “Espresso” by Sabrina Carpenter, “360” by Charli xcx and “Not Like Us” by Kendrick Lamar because of the overall quality and complexity in their engineering and mixing compared to the other songs.
Many listeners have those songs and tunes, voluntarily or not, stuck in their heads. By that logic of course, “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” by Beyoncé and “Good Luck, Babe” by Chappell Roan should also be considered.
However, there has been a trend in recent years where the most popular song, instead of the one that fits the description of the category, wins. “BIRDS OF A FEATHER” by Billie Eilish is already leading the pack.
Related to ROTY is Song of the Year, which differs in that it deals exclusively with the songwriters and lyrics. While the nominations are slightly different from ROTY, with Carpenter notably having a different song in each category, the top contenders are basically the same.
“Not Like Us” and “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” are strong with storytelling lyrics and plenty of originality. However, “BIRDS” by Billie Eilish and “Good Luck, Babe!” are most likely to win.
“BIRDS” is chock-filled with Eilish’s staple poetic style that brought her fame in the first place. “Good Luck, Babe!” is Roan’s greatest example of her storytelling skills, and the song’s bridge is going down in history as one of the best moments of music history.
“Not Like Us” and “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” are strong with storytelling lyrics and plenty of originality. However, “BIRDS,” filled with Eilish’s staple poetic style, and “Good Luck, Babe,” with one of the greatest musical bridges in musical history, are most likely to win.
Assessing Album of the Year by straight-up popularity and probability, the top albums would be “COWBOY CARTER” by Beyoncé, “HIT ME HARD AND SOFT” by Billie Eilish, “The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” by Chappell Roan and “THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT” by Taylor Swift.
All these albums have been incredibly popular and successful, genre-shifting for the musical landscape, exemplary of the skill of the artists as singers and writers, and the production quality is top-tier.
The following ranking is somewhat arbitrary but “THE TORTURED POETS DEPARTMENT” is not likely to win due to the general desensitization to Taylor Swift in recent months.
“The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess” will be placed third. While Roan’s songwriting skills are always on point and original, and her album has been a cultural shift within the entire music industry, she is still incredibly new to the scene.
While she might be recognized as a rising artist, that does not necessarily mean she will win the award her first time around.
Speaking of an artist who has won AOTY their first time around, Billie Eilish is back by popular demand with “HIT ME HARD AND SOFT.” There is no reason for Eilish not to receive this award.
The album was incredibly successful, popular and critically acclaimed – not to mention the ways the album has pushed the boundaries of music with Eilish’s customary rejection of conformity in her unique and ever-shifting music.
However, there has been an extreme push for “COWBOY CARTER,” which is easily on the same level as “HIT ME HARD AND SOFT.” Beyoncé has been nominated four other times and fans are pushing to get her a win for the first time.
The fourth biggest category is Best New Artist, which this year has one of the greatest line-ups! The three most likely to win this category, per the requirements of achieving “a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impact[ing] the musical landscape,” are Doechii, Chappell Roan and Shaboozey.
Doechii has brought spoken-word into the public eye with talented and original performances and tracks. Shaboozey has redefined the genre of country with his hip-hop, rock and Americana style.
But Chappell Roan is still the most likely to win this award. Her musical style flows from 2010s campy rock/pop to alternative and indie to classic pop ballads.
Not only that, but her entire persona as a celebrity has been making waves in Hollywood circles, redefining what it means to be famous.
Featured Image by Condé Nast (through Vogue Taiwan) via Wikimedia Commons. CC by 3.0